Cease-Fire In Ukraine Fails And Preparations For War Begin -- Simon Shuster, Time

Ukraine and pro-Russian forces are arming for the next round of conflict

The shelling of Mariupol, a city on the front lines of the war in eastern Ukraine, resumed in earnest at the end of October, just as the country had finished electing a new parliament. It has not let up since. “Day and night, they have been bombing from two directions,” says Vasyl Arbuzov, an adviser to the local authorities in Mariupol, referring to the pro-Russian rebels who have approached the city from the east. “So most people, yes, are preparing for an invasion at any time, from minute to minute.”

If some of the locals still believed in the conflict’s cease-fire – the so-called Minsk protocol signed on Sept. 5 – they have been forced in the past week to part with their illusions. Both the Ukrainian forces and the pro-Russian separatists have been mobilizing troops and weapons for another round of vicious fighting, and the truce has all but broken down in the war that has already claimed some 4,000 lives since April.

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Update: In Ukraine, concerns rise of fresh conflict as peace plan collapses -- Fred Weir, CSM

My Comment: There are now battles occurring everywhere .... especially around enclaves of Ukrainian troops deep in rebel territory .... Surrounded by rebels, Ukrainian soldiers battle on (AFP). Also .... my sources in Moscow are now telling me that Russia is expecting a resumption of the war in the coming days/weeks .... and is positioning forces near the border .... a fact that NATO has also observed in the past few days .... NATO's Stoltenberg Says Russia Moves Troops Closer to Ukraine Border -- Moscow Times/Reuters

What's my opinion .... I still have trouble seeing a resumption of the civil war .... especially now. I am familiar with this region of Ukraine .... winter is about to settle in, and it is incredibly cold to fight under these conditions .... even more so in December/January. While the rebels will have the help of the local population, for Ukraine's army this will be hell. From the videos and pictures that I have seen .... they are not dressed properly for winter warfare, and they will essentially be living outside. In contrast to the rebels .... they have winter clothing (probably supplied by Russia), and they have the support of the locals. The roads will also be blocked with snow .... further isolating these Ukrainian units. They will be in every way easy targets for the rebels and for the Russian artillery across the border. I have told my Ukrainian friends in Kiev that this has the makings of another massacre .... but they are not listening.