Russia-Lebanon deal? What the resurgent power sees in Syria's tiny neighbor


Lebanon, saddled with debt and a long list of political woes, has yet to reply to Russia's offer of $1 billion worth of arms on favorable terms. The deal, say analysts and diplomats, is designed to erode US influence and represents a shift in Russian thinking as the war in Syria enters a more complex multinational phase.


At first glance, it may seem unclear why resurgent world power Russia, flush with success after restoring its regional foothold in Syria, would show much interest in Lebanon.

The tiny country on the eastern Mediterranean, once a vassal state of its far more powerful neighbor Syria, a former Soviet client, is grappling with a long list of political and economic woes.
Lebanon seems forever perched on the edge of a potentially catastrophic war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah organization, the dominant political force in the country.

But as the United States and Russia give growing indications of squaring off in Syria, where the seven-year civil war is entering a more complicated multinational phase, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's main backer Moscow appears to be calculating that it can expand its leverage against Washington by stepping up its influence in Lebanon.

In what is being described here as a political shift by Moscow in its policy toward Lebanon, Russia is offering it a $1 billion arms package and reportedly seeking a military cooperation agreement. The maneuver could threaten to undermine an existing US military assistance program that has seen more than $1.6 billion in weapons, training, and equipment delivered to the Lebanese Army since 2006.

And, depending on how Lebanon responds, analysts say, the move could also subject the country to US sanctions and even treatment as a pariah by the same Western and Gulf Arab countries that have supported it.

Lebanon and Russia have been discussing potential arms deals since 2009, but it is only recently that Moscow has shown any willingness to subsidize a major armaments package. The $1 billion credit line, which includes a 15-year repayment term at zero percent interest, may have less to do with selling Russian weapons to Lebanon and more to do with building up its influence in the tiny country given the growing competition with the US in Syria, analysts and Lebanese politicians say.

“This offer signals a political shift by Russia toward Lebanon,” says a Lebanese parliamentarian familiar with the deal. “At one point there was no interest from Russia in bankrolling an arms deal. But the more discord there is in Syria with the Americans, the more the Russians show interest here. That’s what has got the [US and British] sponsors [of the Lebanese Army] nervous.”