Barely a day after China dropped the hammer on US stock markets by unveiling retaliatory tariffs on $50 billion in US imports that - unlike US measures that mostly targeted obscure industrial products - actually struck at key industries like soybean farmers, automobiles and airplanes, the Communist Party crowed about what it already sees as its "victory" in the nascent trade war in an editorial published by the Global Times, China's state-owned, English-language tabloid and extremely hawkish party mouthpiece.
In the editorial, China swatted away US claims - repeated most recently by Larry Kudlow during this morning's interview with Fox Business's Maria Bartiromo - that China has somehow victimized the US via its trade agreements while gloating about the leadership's decision to strike at a "massive weak spot" for the US economy.
While the tit-for-tat tariffs could hurt both economies, the damage to China's economy caused by the US's Section 301 tariffs will "pale in comparison to the damage done to the US economy via China's retaliations."
And just to illustrate that point, literally, a Chinese cartoonist showed that another way Beijing will hurt the US is by a "stockmarket squeeze."
Furthermore, in standing up to America's "bullying tactics", China warns that the pleasure the US had derived from its sanctions in the past "will now cause them suffering as their financial and political gains diminish to zero."
This is Beijing's clear show of retaliation toward the proposed tariff list on Chinese products from the US. Beijing showed an impressive response time for its retaliation efforts, taking less than 12 hours to announce its trade countermeasures. Chinese officials agree that its country's countermeasures match those imposed by the US and that they showcase China's determination to win this trade war.
It is worth noting that China strikes the US side by targeting its most valuable imports, such as soybeans, automobiles and chemical products. These aspects were targeted because they represent key pillars in the US imports and can create a massive weak spot for the US economy if their profitability is at risk.
Although China will sustain financial losses thanks to the US' Section 301 investigation tariffs, they will pale in comparison to the damage done to the US economy via China's retaliations.
And with China digging in for a long, protracted trade conflict, one from which it will never surrender, if it is indeed Kudlow's - and the Administration's - hope that China will concede to US trade demands, then there will be much disappointment all around.
Underscoring China's preparation for a "scorched earth", and tit-for-tat escalating war, the Chinese government has told its citizens it is prepared to go toe-to-toe in its fight with Washington. In fact, more and more Chinese citizens think that an "epic trade war" is inevitable, which would knock some common sense into the US government so that it will change its way of dealing with China.
Hawkish politicians in Washington have obviously overestimated the capability and endurance of the US economy in a trade war, since they believe they can do whatever they like. China has shown a great deal of restraint for now, but if the US persists in this trade war, China is ready to fight to the end.
It took China just 11 hours to retaliate against the United States for proposing tariffs on some 1,300 Chinese products, but Chinese officials are holding back on taking aim at their largest American import: government debt.
In a tit-for-tat response to the Trump administration’s plan for 25 percent duties on $50 billion of Chinese imports, China hit back with its own list of similar duties on key American imports including soybeans, planes, cars, beef and chemicals. But officials signaled no interest for now in bringing their vast holdings of U.S. Treasuries to the fight.
China held around $1.17 trillion of Treasuries as of the end of January, making it the largest of America's foreign creditors and the No. 2 overall owner of U.S. government bonds after the Federal Reserve. Any move by China to chop its Treasury portfolio could inflict significant harm on U.S. finances and global investors, driving bond yields higher and making it more costly to finance the federal government.(Graphic: Top U.S. trade partners & foreign holders of Treasuries - reut.rs/2CUqQB0)
China’s Treasury holdings have dipped in recent months, declining by about $30 billion from $1.20 trillion last August, and they are down about 11 percent from their record high above $1.3 trillion in late 2013, according to U.S government data. In all, foreign governments own $4 trillion, or more than a quarter, of the $14.7 trillion in Treasury securities outstanding.
Asked by a reporter on Wednesday if China would reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings in retaliation, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao reiterated China’s long-standing policy regarding its foreign exchange reserves, saying it is a responsible investor and that it will safeguard their value.
“If they wanted to pull the nuclear switch, if they committed to dumping Treasuries, it would have an immediate and temporary impact on money markets in the United States,” said Jeff Klingelhofer, a portfolio manager who oversees more than $6 billion at Thornburg Investment Management Inc. “But I think it is a bigger hit to the sustainability of what they’re trying to accomplish.”
Brad Setser, senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, said China can sell Treasuries and buy lower-yielding European or Japanese debt.
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